Figuring this all out
Well, I’ve just started reading this book called The Hydrogen Economy: The Creation of the Worldwide Energy Web and the Redistribution of Power on Earth by Jeremy Rifkin. (Side note: where are the editors when it comes to book titles these days…sheesh.)
Anyway, I am only three chapters in, but I understand the gist of what he’s arguing for: a conversion of the energy system into a hydrogen-based, distributed network, and so on and so forth, which my mother correctly points out is being touted as a plausible option only because it keeps the cartels in the game…as peddlers of hydrogen instead of oil.
But I don’t intend to comment on his main thesis at this point.
Instead, I was struck by the grim picture he painted in the first three chapters. Namely, the seriousness of the impending oil shortage. It seems, according to his figures, that we can expect world oil production to top out at some point between now and 2020…probably after 2010.
This means we will reach the point where we have exhausted 50% of the world’s available recoverable oil supply. Further, the Western nations + Russia are the most tapped out. It seems oil producing countries like the USA, Canada, Norway and Venezuela have far less recoverable oil left than the Middle East countries. In fact…once Russia reaches its point of maximum production, the Middle Eastern countries will be the only ones left that haven’t reached that critical halfway mark.
This means a few things: (1) Once we go past the halfway mark, oil production gets lower and lower each year; (2) once that happens, oil prices rise; (3) once the Middle East is the only supplier with a large supply, they completely control the world oil market, and would have the power to hold the West hostage at any time.
OK, so, when I digest this information, it illuminates the logic of what the Bush administration is up to. Now, before I have my mostly liberal-leaning friends all over my ass, notice I did not use the word ‘ethical’ or ‘morally right’ or anything of the sort. I merely said, ‘logic’.
In other words, there is logic to it beyond just money making, which was my previous theory. Of course, money making is part of it, but clearly the goal is to prevent the Middle Eastern nations from being able to exert any power over the West. Now, this is shitty, but…well…logical from the American perspective.
It also explains why the Bush administration is so hell-bent on eradicating nukes from unfriendly Arab countries (coincidentally, the ones with the biggest oil reserves or are hostile to U.S. interests: Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Syria). By preventing them from developing nukes, it effectively neuters their ability to back up an oil embargo against the West. In other words, if OPEC got together and said (justifiably) “Hey, U.S. and Europe: Fuck you. You can’t have any more oil because you’ve been treating us like shit for 1,000 years.”, we could simply say, “OK, if you won’t sell it to us, then we’ll take it.” If they have workable nukes, ‘taking it’ becomes a bit more difficult.
So, when viewed in this light, let’s assess the Bush Regime’s progress: Kuwait’s indebted to us for a while, because of the whole Desert Storm thing. the United Arab Emirates are with the program, for now. Saudi Arabia is with the program officially, as long as their corrupt government stays in place. And, if they are overthrown, it will likely be by a group hostile to the United States that will make some assinine attack on us, thus justifying a U.S. invasion of Saudi Arabia (which, I believe, the Bush administration would enjoy).
Syria and Iran are surrounded (troops in Turkey, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Afghanistan, the Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf). Iraq is, of course, occupied. (Iraq also has the reserves that are the least tapped. Saudi Arabia has more oil in total, but they are closer to the dreaded halfway mark than Iraq, whose reserves haven’t been tapped yet.)
So what’s this all mean, tactically speaking? Well, for starters Vladimir Putin and Jacques Chirac fucked up, big time. Putin tried to position Russia as a stable supplier of oil to the West, but it would appear from their actions that the Bush administration could give a shit. The Russian economy is completely dependent on their oil output, even though their reserves won’t last too long, and if the Americans cut Russia out of the game, they basically ensure the Russian economy continues to suck. France has now been marginalized on the world stage. The U.S.A. is clearly going to control all of the oil, if this plan is executed fully, and Paris pissed off Washington, thus ensuring that the French won’t get preferential status when the pricing is set during the impending oil shortage (in ten years or so). Ditto Belgium and Germany. (There are already rumbling that the U.S. will be closing military bases in Germany and moving them to Eastern Europe…this is another source of income for Germany.) The U.K., Spain, and most of Eastern Europe will, of course, be getting great oil rates from American companies, which, in the case of Eastern Europe, ought to help them modernize themselves quicker.
Basically, Rumsfeld et al. have made a ballsy move here, one that is morally reprehensible, but which effectively ensures American prosperity during an upcoming energy crisis. And, we would be hit harder than anyone during an energy crisis, because of our lack of conservation, and the volume of our raw energy consumption (26% of the world’s oil output, according to Rifkin).
This whole thing is at once maddening and fascinating and confusing, but to end on an optimistic note: If Bush is elected for a second term (I see no reason at this time he won’t be, unless he, like, rapes a 3 year old girl on TV or something), and completes American dominance of the Middle East, and then in 2008 the American electorate goes for someone more progressive who implements a planned energy shift, then it could end up working out all right for U.S. interests.
Of course, the Muslim countries will (once again) be fucked, and once the oil runs out, we’ll pull out of their countries, leaving them in shambles with no economic means to rectify things.
I’ve been going over and over it, and it seems to me the only things that could have stopped this American power grab are if, rather than voicing dissent, France, Germany and Russia had actually declared war on us, and moved troops into Iraq to protect it. Alternatively, if China had done the same, it might have averted things. Neither of those sounds palatable, perhaps, but what else could have been done?